| 1 |
Author(s):
Michel Garenne.
Page No : 151-167
|
Fifty years of research in African demography: progresses and challenges!
Abstract
The paper presents and discusses the progress in knowledge of African popula-
tions and their dynamics over the past 50 years. It takes as a starting point the
landmark series of studies published in The Demography of Tropical Africa. Since
then major progresses in data collection and data analysis were made, which are
reviewed and discussed, with special reference to direct and indirect methods of
demographic estimation. A major change occurred about 25 years ago with the
development of DHS surveys and the focus on epidemiology and public health
issues. Demographic research had to change its paradigms, and major advances
were made in our understanding of population dynamics in relation with health
issues. In a last part, the paper addresses special topics, unforeseeable events
such as the HIV/AIDS epidemics which had major consequences for many demo-
graphic processes, and new fields for research around environmental issues.
Key Words: Demography; public health; demographic methods; history,
sub-Saharan Africa
Résumé en frangais
Cette communication présente et discute les progrés faits depuis un demi-siécle
sur la connaissance des populations africaines et leurs dynamiques. Elle part
d'une série d’études pionniéres publiées dans l’ouvrage intitulé : The Demography
of Tropical Africa. Depuis cette époque, de nombreux progrés ont été faits en
matiére de collecte et d’analyse des données, qui sont présentés et discutés, en
mettant I’accent sur les méthodes directes et indirectes d’estimation démogra-
phique. Un changement majeur se produit 25 ans plus tard avec le développe-
ment des enquétes démographiques et sanitaires (EDS), l’intérét se portant alors
sur les questions épidémiologiques et de santé publique. La recherche démogra-
phique a da changer ses paradigmes, permettant de réaliser des avancées majeu-
res sur la compréhension des dynamiques de population en relation avec les
questions de santé. Dans une derniére partie, la communication traite de sujets
spéciaux, d’événements imprévisibles comme |’émergence du VIH/sida, qui a eu
d’énormes conséquences sur les phénoménes démographiques, et de nouvelles
questions comme celles qui ont trait aux questions d’environnement.
Mots clé: Démographie; Santé publique; Méthodes d’estimation; Histoire;
Afrique sub-Saharienne.
| 2 |
Author(s):
James P.M. Ntozi.
Page No : 168-180
|
Training of population specialists for Africa’s needs: past, current and future
Abstract
Africa has been training population specialists since the early 1960s, following
some countries’ acquiring political independence. The training has consisted of
undergraduate degrees, post-graduate diplomas, masters, doctorates and post-
doctorates at regional and national institutions as well as centres found outside
the continent. Achievements of the training programme over several decades have
included many population specialists trained and helping in implementing the
population related projects in the region and building the capacity of several Afri-
can population training centres. Challenges have consisted of inadequate finan-
cial support from development partners and regional and national governments,
lack of scholarships for students, scarce research grants for staff and students,
development partners’ related issues, problems related to national and regional
governments, lack of interest in supporting training of technical demographers,
limitation of infrastructure for training, shortage of qualified trainers and unem-
ployment of graduates in population studies. It is recommended that national
governments and regional agencies provide core financing of African population
training centres and only mobilize donor funding as supplementary. More focus
should be directed to advanced research training to ensure that qualified popula-
tion specialists lost to the brain drain and other factors are continuously replaced.
African training institutions need to be more innovative and create new opportu-
nities of sustainability when the support being received is stopped.
| 3 |
Author(s):
Georges Reniers.
Page No : 181-193
|
Malthus, the 18th Century European explorers and the principle of population in Africa
Abstract
In the second edition of his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus included
twelve chapters that offer a remarkable description of population dynamics from
all corners of the world. His discussion of (sub-Saharan) Africa was almost
entirely based on the travel accounts of James Bruce and Mungo Park, two late
Eighteenth Century British explorers. In this essay, | introduce these sources and
discuss the insights that Malthus did, or perhaps should have, derived from both.
| 4 |
Author(s):
P.S. Nair.
Page No : 194-214
|
Age structural transition in South Africa
Abstract
This chapter deals with the current age structure and the age structural transi-
tion (AST) underway in South Africa. We have used the national Census data for
1996 and 2001 andthe Community survey data for 2007. In 2007, 31 percent of
the population was enumerated below !|5 years of age, 64 percent between |5-
64 and 5.4 percent 65+ implying the early stages of aging process. The median
age in 2007 is 24.3 years, increased from 23 years in 1996. The proportion of
young dependents is declining whereas that of the economically active and aged
populations are increasing. Generally, the Black population appears younger and
the Whites older. The other two ethnic groups are placed in the middle. This is,
perhaps, a reflection of the differential fertility across the ethnic groups. The pro-
portion of labour force population in 2007 is the highest for Asians & Indians fol-
lowed by Whites; and the lowest for Blacks. So far as the proportion of the aged is
concerned, Whites lead relatively high (12.4 %) as compared to coloured and
Black population groups.
During 1996-2007, the age structural transition for the total population is only
marginal in South Africa. The median age of the total population grew from 23
years to 24.3 years, an increase of 5.6 percent. The female median age grew from
24.5 to 25.2 years, slightly better than that of males. The old age population has
increased by 12.5 percent during the same period along with the global trend of
female advantage. Again, the labour force population has increased by 5.5 per-
cent. AST is highest for the white population, followed closely by Asians & Indians.
This calls for continued higher investments in primary and secondary education,
health care service delivery including reproductive health and social security.
Again, for a country like South Africa where unemployment is quite high, the
enormity of labour force (64%) has to be viewed seriously. Rapid employment
generation, especially for the weaker groups, is the key. Further, one fifth (20.4
%) of the population is in the 15-24 years age group which is the target group for
tertiary education. The slow process of AST among Black population warrants for
preferential resource allocations especially in the areas of reproductive health and
employment.
| 5 |
Author(s):
Richard Marcoux.
Page No : 215-225
|
Africa and the francophonie of tomorrow: an attempt to measure the population of the Francophonie from now to 2060
Abstract
Habib Bourgiba, Hamani Diori and Léopold Sédar Senghor are considered the
fathers of the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), an interna-
tional community created in the early 1960s that currently unites more than
thirty countries where the French language is given a major role in public life,
education, the arts, law, the media, etc. Some present the OIF as a neo-colonial
organization, while others think of it as protecting the world’s cultural diversity in
the face of globalization. Regardless, this assembly of countries around the world
has played and should continue to play a significant role in international politics.
However, the configurational changes this Francophone community has experi-
enced since its inception in the 1960s are nothing compared with those we pre-
dict for the next 50 years. In fact, the most recent demographic trends outlined in
the United Nations’ latest population projections are leading to a major reconfig-
uration of the demographic weight of the countries of the world, particularly in
Africa. In this context, we were interested to try a forward-looking exercise based
on these most recent projections from the UN that could allow us to define the
Francophonie of tomorrow by exploring the evolution of Africa’s demographic
weight. In the coming decades, what will be the size and the geographic distribu-
tion of the Francophone population? How has Africa’s demographic weight in the
espace francophone evolved? And how will it evolve in the future? In this article,
we try to better define the demographic outline of tomorrow’s Francophonie by
drawing on different definitions of the espace francophone, while highlighting
some of the political and social issues of this forward-looking exercise for the
Francophone community in general, and for Africa in particular.
| 6 |
Author(s):
T.O. Fadayomi, PhD..
Page No : 226-249
|
The demographic bonus: how prepared is Africa for the gains?
Abstract
This paper examines the prospects of Africa’s changing age structure in favor of a
temporary surge in the proportion of the working age population and the possibil-
ity of benefitting from the implied human endowment via appropriate develop-
ment strategies a la South-East Asia.
An attempt to gauge the preparedness of sub-Saharan African countries in order
to take advantage of the incipient demographic bonus, using South-East Asia as
the platform of best practices, shows that sub-Saharan Africa must, on the aver-
age, grow the GDP to a higher level, reduce both public and private consumption
expenditure in order to save and deepen more her investments in education at all
levels and also enhance private spending on health. Besides, intra-African com-
parisons on the development efforts towards the attainment of the MDGs shows
that a lot of sub-Saharan African countries are too slow to adapt to the changing
age structure with appropriate social and human capital development policies
and programs.
Other important variables required, from the South-East Asian experience, are
more investments in physical infrastructures, services and industrial production
which are essential for employment generation in the economy.
| 7 |
Author(s):
Uche C. Isiugo-Abanihe, Olubukola A. Oke.
Page No : 250-266
|
Maternal and environmental factors influencing infant birth weight in Ibadan, Nigeria
Abstract
Fetal weight at birth is a major determinant of survival, physical growth and
mental development of an infant. About 14 percent of all births in Nigeria are
born with low birth weight. Studies on birth weight in Nigeria have focused
mainly on the biomedical risk factors and have largely ignored the influence the
socio-cultural environment which encompasses maternal Knowledge, beliefs,
and practices during the prenatal period. With the premise that birth weight
shows a reverse social gradient, this study examined the effects of maternal,
sociocultural and environmental factors on the birth weight of infants in Ibadan.
The research adopted a prospective survey design method involving multistage
sampling procedure to select 1,138 pregnant women accessing antenatal care
services from both orthodox and community health providers. The instrument
comprised structured questionnaire, and secondary data were generated from
the patients’ files retrieved from the antenatal care centres. The study identi-
fied a number of maternal, socioeconomic and environmental factors that sig-
nificantly influence low birth weight and suggested actions that would help
reduce the risk factors of low birth weight and promote care-seeking and
demand for skilled care at all stages of pregnancy.
Keywords: Antenatal care, high risk pregnancy, skilled care, maternal
health, birth weight.
| 8 |
Author(s):
Eric O. Udjo.
Page No : 267-285
|
Magnitudes and trends in orphanhood among younger persons in the era of HIV/AIDS in South Africa, 2001-2015
Abstract
Information on the magnitude of orphanhood is important from various perspec-
tives. Though not designed for that purpose, orphanhood questions have been
used by some studies to infer the magnitude of orphans due to AIDS among
younger persons. This study provides an historical overview of the orphanhood
questions and estimates the magnitude of orphans in the era of HIV/AIDS in
South Africa using an epidemiologic and demographic model. The results suggest
that the number of orphans in South Africa may increase to about |.9 million by
2015 if current trends continue. These figures are lower than estimated by some
previous studies.
Key Words: HIV/AIDS, orphanhood, maternal, paternal, African,
Coloured, Indian, White, South Africa, population groups.
| 9 |
Author(s):
Jason T. Kerwin, Sallie M. Foley, Rebecca L. Thornton, Paulin Basinga!t, Jobiba Chinkhumbat.
Page No : 286-297
|
Missing safer sex strategies in HIV Prevention: A call for further research
Abstract
Despite the efforts of educators, public health officials, and HIV/AIDS prevention
experts, condom promotion has failed to stop the HIV epidemic in most of sub-
Saharan Africa and most researchers and policy makers have focused on risk
reductions for interventions for penetrative sex. We consider another HIV preven-
tion option: female-to-male oral sex (fellatio). Extensive medical evidence indi-
cates that fellatio is roughly as protective against HIV transmission as vaginal sex
with a condom, and much safer than unprotected sex, but it is rarely emphasized
in HIV prevention curricula. Moreover, available data on the practice of oral sex in
Africa suggests that the practice is very rare compared to the practice in the
United States. This paper reviews some of the existing evidence on the efficacy
and prevalence of oral sex, discusses the potential of this safer sex strategy for
mitigating the spread of HIV in Africa, and stresses the need for further research.
| 10 |
Author(s):
Aderanti Adepoju.
Page No : 298-319
|
Reflections on international migration and development in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
This reflective article sketches the specificity of migratory flows in sub-Saharan
Africa, which is essentially intra-regional. While changing dynamically, the dis-
tinctive features include increasing female migration, diversification of migration
destinations, transformation of labour flows into commercial migration, and emi-
gration of skilled health and other professionals. These migrations take place
largely within the context of sub-regional economic unions which are dominated
by the economies of a single country, and movements of persons have been
directed to a limited number of countries within these unions. Emigration pres-
sure is fuelled by unstable politics, poverty and rapidly growing populations.
In general, remittances have been rising steeply and are an important source of
income for many poor countries and serve as lifeline to pay for basic services,
health care, education of siblings and children and to enhance agricultural pro-
duction. Yet, millennium development goals and other development agendas are
being compromised by the emigration of scarce skilled manpower. A major chal-
lenge now facing the region is how to retain, attract back and effectively utilise
the rare skills of nationals living abroad for national development. The paper con-
cludes by stressing the need for rich countries to help poor African countries fos-
ter local development, reduce poverty and create domestic employment in the
spirit of co-responsibility.
| 11 |
Author(s):
Daniel Jordan Smith.
Page No : 320-336
|
Rural-to-urban migration, kinship networks, and fertility among the Igbo in Nigeria
Abstract
Like many African rural-to-urban migrants, Igbo-speaking migrants to cities in
Nigeria maintain close ties to their places of origin. ‘Home people’ constitute a
vital core of most migrants’ social networks. The institution of kinship enables
migrants to negotiate Nigeria’s clientelistic political economy. In this context,
dichotomous distinctions between rural and urban can be inappropriate analytical
concepts because kinship obligations and community ties that extend across rural
and urban space create a continuous social field. This paper presents ethno-
graphic data to suggest that fertility behavior in contemporary Igbo-speaking
Nigeria cannot be understood without taking into account the ways in which rural
and urban social and demographic regimes are mutually implicated and dialecti-
cally constituted (anthropological demography; migration; kinship; reproductive
behavior; Nigeria[]
| 12 |
Author(s):
Philippe Bocquier, Andrew Kabulu Mukandila.
Page No : 337-361
|
African urbanization trends and prospects
Abstract
The paper aims at analysing and projecting urbanization trends using United
Nations, World Urbanization Prospects data, 2007 Revision. A third order polyno-
mial is used to model urban-rural growth difference from 1950 to 2005 country
by country. The results of the model are compared to UN projection on urban
growth for the period 2010-2050. Using the new model, the African urban popu-
lation is projected to stagnate around its current level below 40%, with little var-
iations by regions up to 2050, while the UN predicts 62%. The findings suggest
that UN projections are excessively high and do not match the level of economic
and social development in Africa.
| 13 |
Author(s):
Charles H. Teller, Assefa Hailemariam, Tesfayi Gebreselassie, Yordanos Seifu.
Page No : 362-380
|
The uniqueness of the Ethiopian demographic transition within sub-Saharan Africa: multiple responses to population pressure, and preconditions for rural fertility decline and capturing the demographic dividend
Abstract
The findings of our new book on population and development in the second larg-
est country, Ethiopia, are presented. We highlight its uniqueness in demographic
transitions among countries in sub-Saharan African. Ethiopia has the largest
rural-urban fertility gap (with below replacement fertility for Addis Ababa), the
lowest maternal health service coverage by far, the highest percentage of illiterate
mothers, the largest number of food insecure people, and 83% of the population
concentrated mainly in densely populated rural areas. We present a new frame-
work for the study of both poverty and development-driven causes and demo-
graphic responses to frequent hazards common in the fragile Horn of Africa.
Multiple vulnerabilities and responses are rigorously documented, with migration
and off-farm labor mobility, female education, delayed marriage, and lower family
size norms predisposing a predicted acceleration of the rural fertility decline. We
propose numerous policy and research implications to evaluate progress on what
may now be reachable 2015 population policy targets in TFR and CPR, and to
prepare for a potential demographic dividend.
Key Words: Demographic transition; demographic dividend; population
policy; socio-economic development; migration/urbanization
| 14 |
Author(s):
Mouftaou Amadou Sanni.
Page No : 381-401
|
Niveaux et tendances des besoins non satisfaits de planification familiale au Bénin : Facteurs explicatifs et changements dans le temps
Abstract
Résumé
Généralement lorsqu’on analyse les besoins non satisfaits en matiére de planifi-
cation familiale, les femmes mariées ou Jes adolescents/jeunes ont été le plus
souvent ciblés dans les travaux empiriques. Dans la mesure ou l’institution du
mariage s’érode en Afrique subsaharienne et qu'il se développe un contexte de
femmes mére-enfant plutdt celui mére-épouse, cet article propose d’examiner
plutét ce probleme chez les femmes en age de procréer du Bénin. Les femmes en
age de procréer sexuellement actives qui ne désirent pas concevoir une grossesse
au moment des EDS ont un besoin de planification familiale; elles constituent la
population étudiée ad chacune des trois EDS du pays. Celles d’entre elles qui n'uti-
lisent pas de contraception moderne qu moment des enquétes ont un « besoin
non satisfait » en matiére de planification familiale efficace. C’est Ia variable
expliquée dans l’étude. La régression logistique simple a permis d’identifier les
facteurs individuels qui influencent les besoins non satisfaits en PF par les
femmes.
Le niveau de scolarisation atteint et fe statut matrimonial sont deux facteurs
influencant au cours des trois périodes d’étude les besoins non satisfaits en mat-
iére de PF. Le niveau secondaire ou plus s’est particuliérement illustré comme req-
uis pour des changements en faveur d’une satisfaction des besoins potentiels de
planification des naissances Dans cette optique, [’éducation a été suggérée
comme secteur clé ad promouvoir pour I’amorce d'un développement favorable a
Patteinte des programmes de développement, en particulier, ceux de planification
familiale efficace.
| 15 |
Author(s):
Gobopamang Letamo.
Page No : 403-418
|
The influence of gender role attitudes on risky sexual behaviour: evidence from the 2008 Botswana AIDS impact survey III
Abstract
Previous studies have posed seemingly contradictory arguments that either traditional attitudes or egalitarian attitudes are associated with riskier behaviour. Little research has been conducted to document how gender role attitudes influence
sexual behaviour in Botswana. The purpose of this study is to examine the association between gender role attitudes and risky sexual behaviour. Data used in this
study are from the 2008 Botswana AIDS Impact Survey which was a nationally
representative, population-based survey. Cross-tabulations and logistic regression
analysis were used to assess the influence of gender role attitudes on risky sexual
behaviour such non-use of condom and multiple sexual partners. The cross-tabulated results of the study showed that generally women had egalitarian gender
role attitudes towards sexual behaviours compared to the men. Bivariate analysis
showed that about 47% of the respondents believed men can have more than
one sexual partner at a time while 42% indicated that women can have more
than one sexual partner at a time. Over one in ten reported that it is a wife’s duty
to have sex with her husband even if she does not want to and about 24% of the
respondents reported that it is not a woman’s right to decide if she will have safe
sex. The logistic regression results showed that the selected gender role attitude
variables were not significantly associated with risky sexual behaviour except the
belief that it is acceptable for a partner to be in possession of a female condom.
In short, after controlling for important socio-demographic variables, the analysis
showed that traditional gender role attitudes were not significantly associated
with risky sexual behaviour of non-use of condoms and engagement in multiple
sexual relationships. The relationship between gender role attitudes and sexual
behaviour is very complex and detailed qualitative research may provide more
answers to the research questions than a cross-sectional study design. Additional
research is required to understand this complex relationship.
Keywords: Gender role attitudes; risky sexual behaviour; Botswana
| 16 |
Author(s):
Sarah R. Hayford' and Victor Agadjanian.
Page No : 419-439
|
Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique
Abstract
In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial
proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired
family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of “don’t
know” or “up to God” as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing.
Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to
uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from
rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more
common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous
research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing
the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortal-
ity. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to eco-
nomic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less
strongly related.
Keywords: fertility, fertility intentions, non-numeric preferences, sub-
Saharan Africa
| 17 |
Author(s):
Enid Schatz, Sangeetha Madhavan.
Page No : 440-456
|
Headship of older persons in the context of HIV/ AIDS in rural South Africa
Abstract
This paper examines older persons’ positions as heads of households in the Agin-
court sub-district of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Older people’s access to
non-contributory pensions in a context of AlDS-related chronic illness and prema-
ture death might increase their household responsibilities which, in turn, may be
manifested in higher rates of household headship. We use descriptive analysis to
outline the traits of household heads, compare household characteristics, in par-
ticular recent mortality experience, across headship types (male/female, pre/
post-pension eligibility). While some significant differences in household composi-
tion exist across headship types, older persons were no more likely to be heading
households with a HIV/AIDS-related death over the 2000-2005 period—prior to
extensive antiretroviral (ARV) rollout. This provides an important starting point
for further investigations aimed at understanding the impact of HIV/AIDS on older
persons’ lives, and as a baseline for measuring the effects of ARV rollout on older
persons’ status in AIDS-endemic communities.
Keywords: Aging, South Africa, headship, HIV/AIDS, households
| 18 |
Author(s):
Monica Magadi! , Rose Olayo.
Page No : 457-470
|
Household HIV/AIDS status and sexual debut among adolescents in Kenya
Abstract
Adolescents in households affected by HIV/AIDS may be at an increased risk of
poorer reproductive health than other adolescents due to the impoverishing
effects of AIDS in households or lack of parental guidance. In this paper, we exam-
ine the effect of parents’ HIV status on adolescent sexual and reproductive
health, focusing on early sexual debut among adolescents in Kenya. The analysis
places particular emphasis on comparisons of the relative disadvantage of differ-
ent groups of adolescents aged 15-17 years, with particular reference to those liv-
ing in households where an adult is infected with HIV. The data come from the
2003 and 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS). The results
suggest increased vulnerability among adolescent boys and girls living in house-
holds where an adult is infected with HIV, especially when other household factors
are controlled for. On average, adolescent boys and girls living in households
where at least one adult is infected with HIV have about 50% higher odds of hav-
ing initiated sexual activity compared to their counterparts of similar age and
gender in households where no adult is HIV positive. The odds are more than
60% higher when household characteristics and circumstances relating to
wealth, household head and living arrangements are controlled for. Further analy-
sis reveals that the observed vulnerability among adolescents living in households
with HIV infected adults is partly explained by background factors relating to
region of residence and ethnicity and to a lesser extent by school non-attendance
and mass media exposure.
Key words: Adolescent sexual debut; adolescents affected by HIV/AIDS;
Kenya; Demographic and Health Surveys; logistic regression
models
| 19 |
Author(s):
Latifat Ibisomi.
Page No : 471-486
|
Ascertaining the level of fertility preference implementation in Nigeria
Abstract
Using the 1990 and 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data,
the study examines the levels of trend and differentials in fertility preference
implementation in Nigeria and how this has contributed to observed fertility
changes in the country. Results show that the extent to which women implement
their fertility preference is high and increased by about 4% over the period. Its
contribution to observed fertility decline of 0.5 births was however small (69%).
The index also increased over the period by the various characteristics of women
examined except among respondents with tertiary level of education and women
from the South West. Percentage change is high among women from rural areas,
the North-East and women with no formal education. The pattern among differ-
ent categories of couples shows that preference implementation is higher among
cohabiting, monogamously married and concordant couples. The paper concludes
with program and research recommendations.
Key words: Fertility, preference, implementation, index, Nigeria.
Resume
Utilisant les données de LEnquéte Démographique et de Santé du Nigeria pour
les années 1990 et 2003, l'étude examine les niveaux, tendances et différences
dans Ia mise en ceuvre des préférences de fécondité au Nigeria et comment cela a
contribué aux changements observés dans Ia fécondité. Les résultats montrent
que le degré auquel les femmes adhérent a leurs préférences de fécondité est
élevé et a augmenté denvirons 4 % sur cette période. La contribution de celui-ci
a Ia baisse en fécondité de 0.5 naissances était cependant petite (6 %). L'index a
également augmenté pendant cette période par les diverses caractéristiques des
femmes examinées, sauf parmi les repondants de niveau universitaire et les fem-
mes du Sud-ouest. Le changement en pourcentage est élevé chez les femmes en
milieu rural, au Nord-est et les femmes illettrées. La constante parmi les différen-
tes catégories de couples montre que l’adhérence d ces préférences est plus éle-
vée chez les couples qui cohabitent, mariés monogames et les couples
concordants. Le document se conclut par des recommandations de programme et
recherche.
| 20 |
Author(s):
David Shapiro, Mark D. Gough, Roger Bertrand Pongi Nyuba.
Page No : 487-508
|
Gender, education, and the labour market in Kinshasa
Abstract
This paper uses data from a 2004 survey to study the labour market in Kinshasa,
capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In a context characterized by
protracted poor economic performance going back to the mid-!970s and espe-
cially severe economic problems in the 1990s, women have become increasingly
involved in the labour market and educational attainment of both men and
women has increased. The paper examines labour market outcomes, with
emphasis on differences by gender and education. Using descriptive and multivar-
iate analyses, we examine labour force participation and labour force status
(employed, modern sector; employed, informal sector; unemployed; out of the
labour force), first by age and gender and then by education and gender. Our
results highlight the difficulties well-educated men and women confront in finding
employment in the modern sector, as well as gender differences in favour of males
in access to employment in the modern sector.
Keywords: Labour market, gender, education, modern sector, informal
sector, employment, unemployment
Cet article se base sur les données d’une enquéte effectuée en 2004, portant sur
le marché du travail dans Ia ville de Kinshasa, capitale de la République Démocra-
tique du Congo. Dans un contexte caractérisé par une longue période de réces-
sion remontant au milieu des années 1970 et de graves probleémes économiques
depuis les années 1990, les femmes occupent une part de plus en plus impor-
tante sur le marché du travail, tandis que le niveau global d’instruction des hom-
mes et des femmes ne cesse de s’améliorer. Cet article met en fumiére les
caractéristiques du marché du travail dans Ia ville de Kinshasa, en mettant un
accent particulier sur les différences selon le sexe et le niveau d’instruction. A
faide d’analyses descriptives et multivariées, nous examinons I’activité
économique et fe statut sur le marché du travail (employé dans le secteur formel,
employé dans le secteur informel, chémeur, inactif), d’abord selon I’Gge et le sexe
et ensuite selon le niveau d’instruction et le sexe. Nos résultats mettent en évi-
dence les difficultés auxquelles sont confrontés les hommes et les femmes les plus
instruits a la recherche d’un emploi dans le secteur formel, aussi bien que !’avan-
tage qu’ont les hommes sur Jes femmes d’accéder a un emploi dans le secteur
formel.
| 21 |
Author(s):
Cally Ardington, Nicola Branson, David Lam, Murray Leibbrandt.
Page No : 509-542
|
Explaining the persistence of racial gaps in schooling in South Africa
Abstract
This paper analyses the large racial differences in progress through secondary
school in South Africa using recently collected longitudinal data. Following the
progress of students who were enrolled in Grades 8 and 9 in 2002 in the Cape
Area Panel Study, we document large differences in the probability of grade
advancement between white, coloured, and African youth. Probit regressions indi-
cate that grade advancement between 2002 and 2005 is strongly associated with
household income and with respondents’ scores on a baseline literacy and numer-
acy test. We fully explain the white and coloured advantage over Africans in
progress through school when we control for baseline test scores, previous grades
failed, and per capita household income. The results suggest that the early disad-
vantage of African secondary students is a major factor driving poor progress
through secondary school, with continued racial gaps in grade progression con-
tributing to persistent racial gaps in ultimate schooling attainment. These key
results do not change when we re-estimate these equations separately by race
and conduct our statistical tests across these equations or even when we conduct
post-estimation counterfactual simulations or propensity score matching. As a
final check we add a set of school specific factors to the probit regressions by
race. These factors are not statistically significant in the models; their introduc-
tion only marginally reduces the importance of the baseline test scores and previ-
ous grades failed and they are not important in the counterfactual analysis. All in
all the paper provides very strong evidence that knowledge accumulated by Grade
8 or 9 is a critical determinant of progress through secondary school and that the
equalizing of secondary school quality is unlikely to eliminate racial gaps in grade
progression without improvements at earlier grades.
| 22 |
Author(s):
Emmanuel B. Otieno Onyango, Ann Khasakhala, A.T. Agwanda, Murungaru Kimani, , Bonface K’Oyugi.
Page No : 543-555
|
Effect of mother’s migration on under-two mortality in Kenya
Abstract
This study examines the effect of mothers’ migration status controlling for other
proximate factors (socio-economic, environmental and bio-demographic charac-
teristics) on under two mortality in Kenya. Data used were drawn from 2003
Kenya Demographic Health Survey with focus on infants and children below two
years in age. A total of 5949 infants and children born five years before the survey
are used in the analysis. Cox proportional hazard model is used to assess the rel-
ative effect of the migration status (migrant or non-migrant) of the mother on
survival rates controlling for other explanatory variables. The general results
shows that children of migrant mothers especially those of urban-rural migrants
face a higher mortality risk compared to those of non-migrant mothers. The
results show that failure to account for migration may alter the estimation of
urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality.
| 23 |
Author(s):
Akinrinola Bankole and Suzette Audam.
Page No : 556-586
|
Fertility preferences and contraceptive use among couples in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
Fertility remains high and contraceptive use is low in much of sub-Saharan Africa
despite high levels of unmet need for contraception and clear evidence of excess
fertility. Using data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys this paper
revisits the issue of gender differences in fertility goals, and how these differences
may contribute to the lack of substantial declines in fertility in the region. The
results show that most spouses agreed with respect to their fertility preferences,
whether in terms of desired number of children or desire for a future birth. When
there were disagreements, men tended to want more children than their spouses.
In most countries, contraceptive use among couples was not associated with dif-
ferences in spouses’ desires for a future birth. However, for the few countries
where a significant association was observed, couples were less likely to be using
a method when the wife wanted to have more children and more likely to be using
one when she wanted to stop childbearing. To ensure open and sustained use of
contraception within a union, family planning programs must continue to involve
men by helping them understand the importance of fewer and well spaced births
for the health of women and their children.
| 24 |
Author(s):
Jacob A. Adetunji .
Page No : 587-604
|
Rising popularity of injectable contraceptives in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
Injectable contraceptives are fast becoming the method of choice among married
women in sub-Saharan Africa. In several countries in the region, the proportion of
women using injectable methods has surpassed the proportion of women using
the pill. This is true even in some countries where the pill had been the most pop-
ular modern method in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper analyzes data from six
sub-Saharan African countries that have participated four or more times in the
Demographic and Health Surveys program to investigate recent increases in prev-
alence of injectable contraceptives and identify factors that drive the increase. It
discusses the programmatic implications of this trend for the region, especially in
terms of contraceptive security and sustainability.
| 25 |
Author(s):
Valérie Golaz and Gideon Rutaremwa.
Page No : 605-622
|
The vulnerability of older adults: what do census data say? An application to Uganda
Abstract
Older adults are generally considered as being among the most vulnerable groups
of the population. Yet, being over 55, 60 or 65 years old, does not necessarily
mean being vulnerable in any way. Older adults are stakeholders in a social sys-
tem in which they both receive and give. In Africa, where rapid population growth
and economic changes have greatly transformed livelihoods in the past century,
the social role of the older population has also undergone substantial change.
Even in a context where their power is being eroded, older adults are often
involved as providers until very late in fife. In a situation where social security for
pensioners is almost non-existent, elderly persons who need special care rely
exclusively on their children or their social networks. According to their economic
or family situation, the capability of older people to withstand difficulties is highly
variable. In this context, we define in this paper two components of the vulnera-
bility of older adults based on the structure of the household: structural and rela-
tional vulnerabilities. Then, using data from Uganda Population and Housing
Censuses of 1991 and 2002, we measure the situations of vulnerability affecting
older adults and possible changes that have taken place in this regard over the
past two decades in this country. In Uganda older men and women are about
equal in numbers. Men are less frequently in situations of vulnerability, however.
Logically, the prevalence of vulnerability among older adults increases with age,
but has not significantly changed from 1991 to 2002. Structural and relational
vulnerability affect women much more frequently than men. Disability is more
common among older adults in situations of structural vulnerability than among
others, i.e. among older adults who five alone and have children in their care,
which questions the capacity of family support systems to care for their members.
| 26 |
Author(s):
E.O. Tawiah.
Page No : 623-645
|
Population ageing in Ghana: a profile and emerging issues
Abstract
Population ageing in Ghana is a consequence of a gradual fertility decline which is
also occurring in many sub-Saharan African countries. Data from the 2005/2006
Ghana Living Standards Survey show that the percentage of the elderly (persons
aged 60 years and above) has increased from 4.9 in 1960 to 5.3 in 1970, 5.8 in
1984 and 7.2 in 2000. Median age has increased from 17 years in 1970 to 18.1
years in 1984 and 19.4 years in 2000, implying a 14.1 percentage increase in 30
years. Socio-economic indicators show that elderly females are more vulnerable
and disadvantaged than their male counterparts due in part to low educational
attainment resulting in low female participation in the formal sector with its
attendant low remuneration and inadequate retirement package. One important
emerging issue is the branding of elderly females as witches and subjecting them
to abuse and torture in certain parts of the country. This harmful practice
infringes upon the human rights of these women and the government of Ghana
should do well to abolish the witches’ camps. A large proportion of workers
engaged in the informal sector of the economy do not contribute to the Social
Security Scheme and this makes it extremely difficult for them to cater for their
needs in old age particularly when the extended family is unable to provide sup-
port and care. The government of Ghana should make strenuous efforts to bridge
the gap between producing a concise National Ageing Policy and its implementa-
tion.
| 27 |
Author(s):
B.Baya.
Page No : 646-679
|
Excision et comportement sexuel des femmes au Burkina Faso
Abstract
Résumé
Au Burkina Faso, environ trois femmes sur cing en dge de procréer ont subi une
mutilation génitale. Au nombre des raisons avancées pour justifier cette pratique,
figure le reproche fait aux femmes non excisées d’étre frivoles.
A partir de données de l’Enquéte Démographique et de Santé du Burkina Faso de
2003, nous explorons Ia question du fien entre statut d’excision et comportement
sexuel. Existe-t-il une différence de comportement sexuel selon le statut d’exci-
sion des femmes ? Les femmes non excisées auraient-elles un gout plus prononcé
pour les relations sexuelles ?
A fa suite d'une analyse bi-variée ou chacune des variables du comportement sex-
uel est croisée avec fe statut d’excision, nous avons utilisé un modéle de régres-
sion logistique, binomial puis multinomial pour rendre compte des déterminants
de l’expérience sexuelle pré-maritale.
Les résultats indiquent que contrairement au discours populaire, les femmes non
excisées ne sont ni celles qui ont le plus de partenaires sexuels ni celles qui sont
le plus infidéles, ni celles qui ont un golit plus prononcé pour les rapports sexuels.
Dans le cas du Burkina Faso, ce sont plutét les adolescentes excisées qui ont sig-
nificativement plus de chance de vivre leur premiére expérience sexuelle avant
mariage.
Mots clés : Excision, comportement sexuel des femmes, Burkina Faso
| 28 |
Author(s):
Ngozi M. Nwakeze, Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala.
Page No : 680-696
|
The spatial distribution of health establishments in Nigeria
Abstract
The crisis in the health sector of Nigerian economy has been very obvious since
the last decade. Unfortunately, no appreciable progress has been made in
addressing the crisis and ensuring good health for the populace. One of the myri-
ads of problems facing the Nigerian health system is Ilimited access to health
facilities. The distortions in the Nigerian health sector arising from both vertical
and horizontal inequalities have negative implications for the health care delivery
system and in meeting the health related Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs). Since health is wealth, and like a vicious cycle, the crisis in the health
sector will depress the economy and thereby causing further widening inequalities
in the system. This paper, therefore, examines the spatial distribution of health
establishments in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining whether there is any imbal-
ance. Using the 2007 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) survey of health estab-
lishment in Nigeria and the 2006 population census data, spatial statistical
techniques were applied to the data. The Geographic Information System (GIS)
software was used for data analysis. The results indicate that there are large ine-
qualities in health care provision across the state, relative to the population size.
The policy implication of this paper is that any effort aimed at improving the effi-
ciency of the health care delivery system in Nigeria should ensure that health
facilities are established relative to the structure of the population.
Key words: Nigerian economy, health care, health facilities, health policies
and spatial distribution.
