Explaining the persistence of racial gaps in schooling in South Africa
Population studies
25
Issue: 2
(12 - 2011)
This paper analyses the large racial differences in progress through secondary
school in South Africa using recently collected longitudinal data. Following the
progress of students who were enrolled in Grades 8 and 9 in 2002 in the Cape
Area Panel Study, we document large differences in the probability of grade
advancement between white, coloured, and African youth. Probit regressions indi-
cate that grade advancement between 2002 and 2005 is strongly associated with
household income and with respondents’ scores on a baseline literacy and numer-
acy test. We fully explain the white and coloured advantage over Africans in
progress through school when we control for baseline test scores, previous grades
failed, and per capita household income. The results suggest that the early disad-
vantage of African secondary students is a major factor driving poor progress
through secondary school, with continued racial gaps in grade progression con-
tributing to persistent racial gaps in ultimate schooling attainment. These key
results do not change when we re-estimate these equations separately by race
and conduct our statistical tests across these equations or even when we conduct
post-estimation counterfactual simulations or propensity score matching. As a
final check we add a set of school specific factors to the probit regressions by
race. These factors are not statistically significant in the models; their introduc-
tion only marginally reduces the importance of the baseline test scores and previ-
ous grades failed and they are not important in the counterfactual analysis. All in
all the paper provides very strong evidence that knowledge accumulated by Grade
8 or 9 is a critical determinant of progress through secondary school and that the
equalizing of secondary school quality is unlikely to eliminate racial gaps in grade
progression without improvements at earlier grades.
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