Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique
Reproductive Health
25
Issue: 2
(12 - 2011)
In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial
proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired
family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of “don’t
know” or “up to God” as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing.
Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to
uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from
rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more
common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous
research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing
the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortal-
ity. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to eco-
nomic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less
strongly related.
Keywords: fertility, fertility intentions, non-numeric preferences, sub-
Saharan Africa
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