A century of nuptiality decline in South Africa: A longitudinal analysis of census data
Population studies
30
Issue: 2
(11 - 2016)
The study uses data from eight censuses conducted between 1970 and 2011 to reconstruct
long term trends in terminal celibacy in South Africa. The cohort analysis covers those born
between 1870 and 1971. Results show a quasi-stable prevalence of terminal celibacy for
cohorts born before 1920, followed by a steep rise. Levels and trends were notably different
for the four population groups. Black/Africans had the highest level at endpoint (50% celibate),
despite lower levels at onset, followed by Coloured (34%). Indian/Asian had the lowest level at
endpoint (14%). White/European had highest levels at onset, and intermediate values at
endpoint (17%). Differences were large by ethnicity, Zulu and Swazi having the highest
prevalence of terminal celibacy (60%). Correlations with development were complex, with
higher values among persons with lower education, and those living in urban areas, and lower
values among those who were employed. Overall, cultural factors dominated the rise in
terminal celibacy in South Africa.
Key words: Terminal celibacy; Marriage; Cultural factors; Race; Ethnicity; Socio-economic
factors; Education; Urbanization; Employment; Economic development; South Africa.
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