Can Nigeria Attain a Demographic Dividend?
Demography
31
Issue: 1
(11 - 2017)
We used a demographic-economic simulation model to explore the possibility of Nigeria obtaining a
demographic dividend. The model, called, “DemDiv’, has been applied in several other sub-Saharan
African countries. Four scenarios were constructed and their results compared in terms of the level of
GDP and GDP per capita in the final year of the simulation. GDP in the final year (2050) is 1.6% higher
and GDP per capita is 27% higher under a scenario in which a successful family planning program is
implemented. The modelling results suggest that Nigeria can enter the ranks of lower middle income
economies and obtain a demographic dividend if it adopts appropriate family planning, education and
economic strategies.
Key words: demographic dividend, population growth, model, Nigeria, family planning
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