Mortality among Married Men in Rural Kenya and Malawi
Population studies
20
Issue: 2
(10 - 2005)
Using prospective longitudinal data, this article describes recent changes in the levels of adult
mortality among married men aged 20–59 in selected rural areas of Malawi and Kenya, and in the
age pattern of their mortality. Sampled areas have, respectively, moderate and high HIV
prevalence. The observed annual probability of dying for males interviewed in an initial wave of
each study and then reported as deceased in follow-up interviews is 0.031 in Nyanza and 0.016 in
Malawi. Compared to life table estimates for equivalent age groups generated from Kenya’s 1989
census and Malawi’s 1987 census, these results represent a 3-fold increase over 1980s census
levels. These changes have reduced life expectancy at age 20 by about 14 years in Nyanza and 7
years in Malawi. Observed mortality is consistent with a younger age of HIV infection in Nyanza.
Sample characteristics suggest that these levels underestimate the total effect of AIDS on
mortality.
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