The uniqueness of the Ethiopian demographic transition within sub-Saharan Africa: multiple responses to population pressure, and preconditions for rural fertility decline and capturing the demographic dividend
Demography
25
Issue: 2
(12 - 2011)
The findings of our new book on population and development in the second larg-
est country, Ethiopia, are presented. We highlight its uniqueness in demographic
transitions among countries in sub-Saharan African. Ethiopia has the largest
rural-urban fertility gap (with below replacement fertility for Addis Ababa), the
lowest maternal health service coverage by far, the highest percentage of illiterate
mothers, the largest number of food insecure people, and 83% of the population
concentrated mainly in densely populated rural areas. We present a new frame-
work for the study of both poverty and development-driven causes and demo-
graphic responses to frequent hazards common in the fragile Horn of Africa.
Multiple vulnerabilities and responses are rigorously documented, with migration
and off-farm labor mobility, female education, delayed marriage, and lower family
size norms predisposing a predicted acceleration of the rural fertility decline. We
propose numerous policy and research implications to evaluate progress on what
may now be reachable 2015 population policy targets in TFR and CPR, and to
prepare for a potential demographic dividend.
Key Words: Demographic transition; demographic dividend; population
policy; socio-economic development; migration/urbanization
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