Urbanization and net fertility in Zambia, 1951-2022

Abstract

The study estimates net migration flows between rural and urban areas in Zambia between 1951 and 2022. An innovative method is proposed, based on an estimation of differences in net fertility between urban and rural. Data come from two sources: population censuses which provide proportions urban and population growth rates at regular intervals, and demographic and health surveys (DHS) which provide trends in fertility, child survival and net fertility. Results show huge net migration flows between rural and urban areas, at times positive (1951-1980) and (2000-2022), but negative at other times (1980-2000). Net migration contributed positively to 54% of urban growth in the first period, and 44% in the third period, but negatively in the second period (−28%). These fluctuations were correlated with changes in economic growth, positive between 1950 and 1975 and between 1995 and 2020, but negative between 1975 and 1995, mainly because of increasing or decreasing prices of copper ore on international markets. Counter-urbanization was concentrated in the mining cities of the Copperbelt. Zambia appears as an outstanding case of the impact of economic fluctuations due to an external shock on urbanization. However, over a long period (1951-2022), urbanization in Zambia was similar to the average in sub-Saharan Africa.